A note on price targets

I have had some price targets posted on the left-hand side in Google doc format since the new year. Most of these targets were for “Armegeddon” pricing (growth never>3%, or sales declines of 15% annualized for 2+ years). However, price targets like these are useful if one believes a bear market is coming [...]

Year-to-date equity performance

Following up my bond post, my Marketocracy equity accounts (left hand side of this blog) continue to do well. The long account is done according to “mutual fund” rules, the short account is “not compliant” but it is meant to be considered as part of a long-short fund where my neutral allocation is about [...]

2009…

Well, it’s the new year, and the traditional sector rotation is underway. Basically, everybody’s buying the beaten-down stuff from last year in search of “value” and shorting anything that worked last year (i.e. Treasurys). I happen to believe that shorting Treasurys will work out but probably more so in 2010-2011–it’s a little early [...]

What to do now

My marketocracy funds continue to beat the market…My long-only fund is up nearly 32% since inception (August 2001, a rather inauspicious start time), compared to the S&P500’s nearly 18% loss. My short-only fund is up 43% since inception (January 2005) compared to the S&P’s 21% loss, with limited shorting (overall, a 8.25% annualized return [...]

Broadening Perspectives

I’ve decided to make this blog about a bit more than biotechnology investing.  I’ve added two links to my “mutual funds” at Marketocracy.com on the left.  I started these funds on a whim, the long-only fund way back in 2001 and the short-only fund when that option became available on the site back in 2005, [...]

Amylin hit again

Amylin took a 26% hit today on the FDA rejecting its equivalence study of exenatide LAR made at Alkermes and at Amylin’s facilities.  This probably takes away first-mover advantage on a long-acting exenatide from AMLN (when compared with liraglutide from Novo) and increases the likelihood of another commercial failure with exenatide LAR (along with Byetta)

Investing in Biotech…Two Short examples from today

As I described in the previous post, profiting from short-selling in biotech requires the identification of companies likely to fail clinically or commercially (or both!). Today we saw two very fine examples of that: Cell Genesys and Amylin.
Cell Genesys took a solid thumping today, dropping 72% after it halted its GVAX trial in [...]